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Application of Copulas in Analysis of Drought and Irrigation

Authors:
Milan Cisty
Lubomir Celar
Anna Becova

Keywords: drought; irrigation; copula; precipitation; temperature

Abstract:
Abstract—This paper presents probabilistic analysis of the occurrence of irrigation needs. We have conducted a joint analysis of the severity and duration of the most demanding potential annual irrigation periods by a bivariate copula methodology. The characteristics of these periods are derived from both temperature and precipitation. The maximum annual length of the potential irrigation periods and the corresponding rainfall deficit were inferred from basic climatic variables such as inputs for a two-dimensional probability analysis by a copula methodology. The results of this work indicate the suitability of the proposed methodology for an analysis of irrigation needs with greater benefits than in the case of the usual one-dimensional analysis of individual climatic variables. A case study with the aim of testing the methodology was accomplished in southwest Slovakia, where a frequency analysis of the need for irrigation was estimated. The results indicate, e.g., that every second year, a period can be expected in which temperatures above 25◦C occur and which lasts one month with a moisture deficit of about 30 mm. Even more significant periods of drought can be expected, for example, with a 5 or 10-year return period. These phenomena cause significant damage to agriculture yields in the territory investigated, so a requirement for irrigation structures in this area is indicated by the proposed methodology.

Pages: 101 to 105

Copyright: Copyright (c) IARIA, 2015

Publication date: July 19, 2015

Published in: conference

ISSN: 2308-4499

ISBN: 978-1-61208-419-0

Location: Nice,France

Dates: from July 19, 2015 to July 24, 2015