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Forecasting Hourly Electricity Demand in Egypt

Authors:
Mohamed A. Ismail
Alyaa R. Zahran
Eman M. Abd El-Metaal

Keywords: multiple seasonality pattern; post-sample forecasts; Double Seasonal ARIMA models

Abstract:
Egypt has faced a major problem in balancing electricity produced and electricity consumed at any time in the day. Therefore, short-term forecasts are required for controlling and scheduling of electric power system. Electricity demand series has more than one seasonal pattern. Double seasonality of the electricity demand series in many countries have considered. Double seasonality pattern of Egyptian electricity demand has not been investigated before. For the first time, different double seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (DSARIMA) models are estimated for forecasting Egyptian electricity demand using maximum likelihood method. DSARIMA (3,0,1) (1 ,1,1)_(24 ) 〖( 2 ,1 ,3)〗_(168 ) model is selected based on Schwartz Bayesian Criterion (SBC). In addition, empirical results indicated the accuracy of the forecasts produced by this model for different time horizon.

Pages: 42 to 45

Copyright: Copyright (c) IARIA, 2015

Publication date: April 19, 2015

Published in: conference

ISSN: 2519-8386

ISBN: 978-1-61208-445-9

Location: Barcelona, Spain

Dates: from April 19, 2015 to April 24, 2016