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Efficiency of Rainfed Wheat Production: A Global Assessment Using Data Envelopment Analysis

Authors:
Amir Dadrasi
Davina Vačkářová
Fatemeh Salmani
Jan Weinzettel

Keywords: Rainfed wheat; Yield gap; Fertilizer efficiency; Data envelopment analysis; Sustainable agriculture.

Abstract:
Rainfed wheat, covering 160 million hectares globally, is critical to food security but faces significant yield gaps due to inefficient resource use and variable climatic conditions. This study evaluates the efficiency of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) fertilizer use in rainfed wheat production worldwide, aiming to identify optimal application rates for achieving 50%, 70%, and 80% of water-limited potential yield (Yw) while minimizing environmental impacts. Building on an expanded Global Yield Gap Atlas (GYGA) dataset previously extended from 49 countries to global coverage using stepwise regression, we applied Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to assess production efficiency across 122 countries and their climate zones. Inputs included annual precipitation and N and P applications, with outputs comprising crop yield, production, water productivity, and nutrient use efficiencies under the Constant Returns to Scale (CCR) model. Results reveal stark efficiency disparities: Sweden, Ukraine, Ireland, Finland, and Belgium achieved maximum efficiency (1.0), while India, Iran, and others scored as low as 0.18-0.37 under current conditions. Efficiency improved with higher yield targets, with optimal N and P rates significantly lower than current applications in many regions e.g., Montenegro’s N use dropped from 427 kg/ha to 132 kg/ha for actual yield optimization. Climate zone analysis further identified efficient production hotspots, guiding targeted interventions. These findings underscore the potential to enhance global rainfed wheat productivity through optimized fertilizer strategies, offering a pathway to close yield gaps, boost food security, and reduce ecological footprints.

Pages: 28 to 35

Copyright: Copyright (c) IARIA, 2025

Publication date: October 26, 2025

Published in: conference

ISBN: 978-1-68558-327-9

Location: Barcelona, Spain

Dates: from October 26, 2025 to October 30, 2025