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Spatio-Temporal Modeling for Residential Burglary

Authors:
Maria Mahfoud
Sandjai Bhulai
Rob van der Mei

Keywords: Predictive analytics; forecasting; spatio-temporal modeling; residential burglary

Abstract:
Spatio-temporal modeling is widely recognized as a promising means for predicting crime patterns. Despite their enormous potential, the available methods are still in their infancy. A lot of research focuses on crime hotspot detection and geographic crime clusters, while a systematic approach to include the temporal component of the underlying crime distributions is still under-researched. In this paper, we gain further insight in predictive crime modeling by including a spatio-temporal interaction component in the prediction of residential burglaries. Based on an extensive dataset, we show that including additive space-time interactions leads to significantly better predictions.

Pages: 59 to 64

Copyright: Copyright (c) IARIA, 2017

Publication date: November 12, 2017

Published in: conference

ISSN: 2308-4464

ISBN: 978-1-61208-603-3

Location: Barcelona, Spain

Dates: from November 12, 2017 to November 16, 2017