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From Sparks to Strategy: Geospatial and Predictive Modeling of Wildfire Risk for Grid Hardening

Authors:
Vivian Sultan
Jeremy Contreras

Keywords: wildfire; spatial analysis; kernel density; hotspot analysis

Abstract:
Wildfires are no longer seasonal anomalies—they are systemic threats to national infrastructure. In this study, we analyzed every wildfire recorded in the 2025 Wildfire Incident Geodatabase System (WFIGS) and used ArcGIS Pro to map their spatial distribution across the United States. Our geospatial analysis revealed two striking patterns: (1) a dense, contiguous band of wildfire activity sweeping through the Midwest, and (2) concentrated hotspots in Southern California, Alaska, and the Texas Panhandle—regions with critical electric infrastructure. The core contribution of this research is to demonstrate that wildfire hotspot analytics can serve as a predictive shield for electric utilities, enabling proactive defense before flames reach transmission corridors. By overlaying hotspot maps onto power-line layers, utilities gain a clear visual of which assets are at highest risk. This empowers targeted mitigation strategies such as vegetation trimming, pole hardening, and strategic crew deployment—transforming wildfire response from reactive to anticipatory. In an era of climate volatility and grid vulnerability, this study offers a data-driven blueprint for utility resilience—where spatial intelligence becomes a frontline defense.

Pages: 21 to 24

Copyright: Copyright (c) IARIA, 2026

Publication date: March 8, 2026

Published in: conference

ISSN: 2308-412X

ISBN: 978-1-68558-357-6

Location: Valencia, Spain

Dates: from March 8, 2026 to March 12, 2026