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Statistical Analysis of Cost of Energy due to Electricity Outages in Developing Countries

Authors:
Venkat Natarajan
Amit Closepet

Keywords: computational intelligence; algorithms for energy management; stochastic grid; power outages; energy cost; developing countries

Abstract:
This paper describes significant cost saving opportunities for consumers in developing countries by the use of computational intelligence and demand-side-management techniques to mitigate the massive use of diesel back-up during grid outages. We propose novel statistical algorithms to model electricity outages, heavy diesel use and associated customer energy costs in developing countries. Using a blackout simulator and Monte Carlos analysis, we assess the impact of different blackout types such as scheduled, unscheduled and annual forecasted outages on consumer energy costs. Variables for the analysis included time of outage (morning, evening etc.), duration of outage (1-5 hours), Diesel costs (20cents/KW-hr) and type of outage. We found that cost savings opportunities by the use of demand side management to mitigate outages can exceed 30% in many cases.

Pages: 39 to 44

Copyright: Copyright (c) IARIA, 2012

Publication date: July 22, 2012

Published in: conference

ISSN: 2308-3735

ISBN: 978-1-61208-217-2

Location: Nice, France

Dates: from July 22, 2012 to July 27, 2012