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Electricity Price Forecasting in a Smart Grid

Authors:
Md Mahbubur Rahman Khan
Md Minhaz Chowdhury
Kendall Nygard

Keywords: Winter Method; Dynamic Pricing; Smart Grid; Price Forecasting

Abstract:
A smart grid refers to a digitized and intelligently controlled electrical power system. Intelligent monitoring and communication of digital information can support two-way between consumers and providers. The work of this paper concerns modeling of dynamic pricing, potentially helping to improve efficiency of electricity consumption and delivery. A simple variant of collaborative filtering is applied for dynamically predicting prices. Information on power consumption periods, and history of purchase levels and prices are used as input. The collaborative filtering approach is compared with a naïve forecasting method and the Winter method for incorporating seasonality. Actual price data is available for use in validating the models, which reveals that the collaborative filtering method provides the best results.

Pages: 14 to 19

Copyright: Copyright (c) IARIA, 2017

Publication date: February 19, 2017

Published in: conference

ISSN: 2308-3735

ISBN: 978-1-61208-530-2

Location: Athens, Greece

Dates: from February 19, 2017 to February 23, 2017