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Spatial Characterization of Extreme Precipitation in Madeira Island Using Geostatistical Procedures and a 3D SOM

Authors:
Jorge Gorricha
Ana Costa
Victor Lobo

Keywords: Geostatistics; Kriging; Precipitation patterns; Self-Organizing Map

Abstract:
Extreme precipitation events can be analyzed from multiple perspectives. Precipitation indices, estimated from the empirical distribution of the daily observations, are increasingly being used not only to investigate trends in observed precipitation records, but also to examine scenarios of future climate change. In this study, we propose a methodology for characterizing the spatial patterns of extreme precipitation in Madeira Island that is based on two types of approaches. The first one uses linear models, such as Ordinary Kriging and Ordinary Cokriging, to produce continuous surfaces of five extreme precipitation indices. The second one uses a 3D Self-Organizing Map (SOM) to visualize the phenomenon from a global perspective, allowing identifying and characterizing homogenous areas in a geo-spatial perspective. The methodology was applied to a set of precipitation indices, which were computed using daily precipitation data from 1998 to 2000 measured at 19 meteorological stations located in Madeira Island. Results show that the island has distinct climatic areas in relation to extreme precipitation events. The northern part of the island and the higher locations are characterized by heavy precipitation events, whereas the south and northwest of the island exhibit low values in all indices. The promising results from this study indicate the proposed methodology, which combines linear and nonlinear approaches, as a valuable tool to deepen the knowledge on the local spatial patterns of extreme precipitation.

Pages: 98 to 104

Copyright: Copyright (c) IARIA, 2012

Publication date: January 30, 2012

Published in: conference

ISSN: 2308-393X

ISBN: 978-1-61208-178-6

Location: Valencia, Spain

Dates: from January 30, 2012 to February 4, 2012