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Modelling Urban Expansion: A Multiple Urban-Densities Approach

Authors:
Ahmed Mustafa
Ismaïl Saadi
Mario Cools
Jacques Teller

Keywords: multinomial logistic regression; urban expansion; urban densities; driving forces

Abstract:
Most existing spatio-temporal urban expansion models consider urban land-use as a binary process, through the identification of urban versus non-urban areas. The main aim of this study is to analyze and model the expansion of multiple urban densities in Wallonia, Belgium. To this end, this study employs a multinomial logistic regression model that enables to visualize the consequence of different urban densities expansion. Cadastral datasets of years 2000 and 2010 are used to set four urban classes (non-urban, low-density, medium-density and high-density urban). Besides, several socio-economic, geographic and political driving forces dealing with urban development were operationalized to create maps of urban expansion probability for each urban density class. These probability maps are then utilized to predict future urban expansions for years 2020 and 2030. The model is validated using relative operating characteristic method for different urban classes. Our results suggest that different urban densities expansions are mainly linked to zoning status, neighboring areas that are urban and accessibility. Most importantly, this study highlights that the contribution of different driving forces to urban expansion process varies along with urban density

Pages: 22 to 25

Copyright: Copyright (c) IARIA, 2016

Publication date: April 24, 2016

Published in: conference

ISSN: 2308-393X

ISBN: 978-1-61208-469-5

Location: Venice, Italy

Dates: from April 24, 2016 to April 28, 2016