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Epidemiological Model of the Spread of COVID-19 in Hawaii’s Challenging Fight Against the Disease

Authors:
Monique Chyba
Yuriy Mileyko
Oleksandr Markovichenko
Richard Carney
Alice Koniges

Keywords: COVID-19, Influenza, Pandemic 1918, SIR Model

Abstract:
Hawai'i and similar island populations can follow a different course of pandemic spread than large cities/states/nations and are often neglected in major studies. We provide a detailed epidemiological model of the spread of COVID-19 in Hawai'i and explore effects of different intervention strategies in both a prospective and retrospective fashion. We use a modified compartmentalized extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model with a simple step function time dependence calibrated using the current data. We model asymptomatic carriers and actual mitigation strategies such as social distancing, contact tracing and quarantine policy.

Pages: 32 to 38

Copyright: Copyright (c) IARIA, 2020

Publication date: October 25, 2020

Published in: conference

ISSN: 2308-4553

ISBN: 978-1-61208-817-4

Location: Nice, France

Dates: from October 25, 2020 to October 29, 2020