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Estimating the Risk of Failing Physics Courses through the Monte Carlo Simulation

Authors:
Isaac Caicedo-Castro
Rubby Castro-Púche
Samir Castaño-Rivera

Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation; educational innovation; computational social science

Abstract:
This research is conducted in the context of the Systems Engineering undergraduate program at the University of Córdoba in Colombia, aiming to calculate the risk of failing physics courses, which are considered particularly challenging for students. At this university, the academic semester is divided into three sessions, each equally weighted in the final grade. Our goal is to estimate the failure risk based on student performance in the earlier sessions. To this end, we collected a dataset comprising the session grades and final results of students enrolled in Physics I, II, and III during 2024. We then implemented a Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the absolute and relative risk of course failure. The results show that failing early sessions is strongly associated with a higher probability of failing the course, especially in Physics I and III. These insights can support lecturers in adjusting the syllabus and designing interventions to reduce dropout rates and improve student outcomes.

Pages: 15 to 22

Copyright: Copyright (c) IARIA, 2025

Publication date: July 6, 2025

Published in: conference

ISBN: 978-1-68558-287-6

Location: Venice, Italy

Dates: from July 6, 2025 to July 10, 2025