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An Investigation of How Horse Racing Experts Make Poor Decisions

Authors:
Yasuhiko Watanabe
Hideaki Nakanishi
Yoshihiro Okada

Keywords: decision making; expert; Thoroughbred horse; sire line; race distance.

Abstract:
In recent years, statistical researches often showed even experts can make poor decisions although they have a wealth of knowledge and experience. In this study, we focus on horse racing experts, such as racing horse owners and trainers, and investigate how and why they make poor decisions on race selections. Using sire line, distance of races, and order of finish as clues, we analyze the 36869 horses registered with Japan Racing Association (JRA) from 2010 to 2017 statistically. There are two ways horse racing experts make poor decisions on race selections: They do not select races that are likely to have good outcomes, or they select races that are likely to have poor outcomes. The results of the statistical analysis showed that horse racing experts made their poor decisions by not selecting races that are likely to have good outcomes, not by selecting races that are likely to have poor outcomes. We think this is because people are more sensitive to risks than opportunities. Even for experts, it is difficult to update knowledge and experience using good results.

Pages: 1 to 6

Copyright: Copyright (c) IARIA, 2024

Publication date: March 10, 2024

Published in: conference

ISSN: 2519-8351

ISBN: 978-1-68558-129-9

Location: Athens, Greece

Dates: from March 10, 2024 to March 14, 2024