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An Investigation of Inconsistent Expectations of Horse Racing Experts

Authors:
Yasuhiko Watanabe
Hideaki Nakanishi
Yoshihiro Okada

Keywords: Decision making, Expert, Thoroughbred horse, Sire line, Race distance.

Abstract:
In recent years, statistical researches often showed even experts can make mistakes although they have a wealth of knowledge and experience. In this study, we focus on horse racing experts, such as racing horse owners and trainers, and investigate whether they have inconsistent expectations on their professional issue. Using sire line, distance of races, and order of finish as clues, we analyze the 36922 horses registered with Japan Racing Association (JRA) from 2010 to 2017 statistically. The results of the statistical analysis showed that horse racing experts had inconsistent expectations on the problem of which race distance they thought were favorable for horses of a certain sire line. We think this is because experts' unconscious minds affected their expectations. Even for experts, it is difficult to consciously notice what they have unconsciously felt.

Pages: 12 to 17

Copyright: Copyright (c) IARIA, 2025

Publication date: March 9, 2025

Published in: conference

ISSN: 2519-8351

ISBN: 978-1-68558-238-8

Location: Lisbon, Portugal

Dates: from March 9, 2025 to March 13, 2025