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A Method for Finding Similar Time Series and Forecasting with Calendar Constraints - a Commercial Bank Case Study

Authors:
Krzysztof Kania
Jerzy Michnik

Keywords: forecasting; calendar; qualitative methods.

Abstract:
In many cases, especially in business activities we can observe constrains regarding an arrangement of the calendar. Sometimes they can be neglected, but sometimes they have a significant impact on the course of events. This article presents a simple method supporting the forecasts of this type of phenomena based on a concept of calendar similarity that may supplement traditional forecasting methods. Presented method has been used in the commercial bank to predict a volume of the documents to process.

Pages: 250 to 253

Copyright: Copyright (c) IARIA, 2012

Publication date: June 24, 2012

Published in: conference

ISSN: 2308-4529

ISBN: 978-1-61208-202-8

Location: Venice, Italy

Dates: from June 24, 2012 to June 29, 2012