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MAEVA: A Framework for Attack Incentive Analysis with Application to Game Theoretic Security Assessment

Authors:
Louai Maghrabi
Eckhard Pfluegel

Keywords: Cybersecurity, risk assessment, game theory, security games, Nash equilibrium analysis

Abstract:
This paper is concerned with the risk assessment of cyber security attacks on an organisation. We develop the novel attack incentive analysis framework MAEVA based on taking into account a multiplicative function of the attacker's anticipated attack effort and expected reward. We argue that our approach can complement and enhance the standard approach based on estimating risk as a function of attack likelihood and impact on the organisation. We then present an application of our framework to game-theoretic risk assessment, illustrating how it can be used to inform the modelling of attacker-defender scenarios using complete information games. This helps to establish more realistic game-theoretical modelling of security assessment scenarios for practical use.

Pages: 31 to 36

Copyright: Copyright (c) IARIA, 2021

Publication date: May 30, 2021

Published in: conference

ISSN: 2308-3980

ISBN: 978-1-61208-862-4

Location: Valencia, Spain

Dates: from May 30, 2021 to June 3, 2021