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Meta-Theory and Machine-Intelligent Modeling of Systemic Changes for the Resilience of a Complex System

Authors:
Roberto Legaspi
Hiroshi Maruyama

Keywords: dynamic system theories; resilience theories; system evolution theories; intelligent systems

Abstract:
Resilience is the ability of a complex system to persist in, adapt to, or transform from dramatically changing circumstances. Our objective is to characterize the resilience of a complex system in depth by looking at what fundamentally constitutes and leads to system changes and how the system can be resilient to these changes. Our characterization is by a two-fold framework, i.e., with a meta-theory that integrates long-standing foundational theories of systemic change and a two-part machine-intelligent computational modeling, specifically, using network analysis and machine learning models, to realize our meta-theory. By starting with a meta-theory as background knowledge to guide our modeling, we avoid irrelevant, scattered and loosely knitted paradigms. Complementary, any truth presented by the inferred models that are not accommodated in the meta-theory may correct flaws in the meta-theory. To our knowledge, our framework that uses this linking of meta-theory and machine-intelligent modeling to characterize resilience is novel. The results we obtained from our simulations show that our framework is a systematic and pragmatic way of inferring predictive models of the contextual interaction behaviors of a resilient system.

Pages: 102 to 111

Copyright: Copyright (c) IARIA, 2015

Publication date: April 19, 2015

Published in: conference

ISSN: 2308-4243

ISBN: 978-1-61208-399-5

Location: Barcelona, Spain

Dates: from April 19, 2015 to April 24, 2015