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Sensitivity of Linear Construction Project Performance to Correlation in Task Durations

Authors:
Ricardo Eiris Pereira
Ian Flood

Keywords: Linear Correlation; Project Planning; Repetitive Construction Work; Risk Management; Stochastic Linear Scheduling.

Abstract:
The performance of construction work and thus the optimality of a plan are impacted directly by uncertainty in the performance of productive resources. For repetitive projects, smooth work flow is necessary to minimize or eliminate interruptions and idle time with the objective of reducing costs and meeting schedule deadlines. Earlier research suggests that correlation in the duration of repeated activities (where durations are stochastic) may be important in determining the most favorable plan. This study assesses the significance of correlation in this respect, using a Linear Scheduling framework for modeling repetitive construction work. A range of levels of correlation are considered using linear correlation between immediate successor repetitions of an activity. The results provide insight into the effects of different degrees of correlation on the expected project duration, cost, crew and equipment idle times and interruptions. The potential impact of correlation on the optimality of a project plan was found to be sufficiently high to justify further investigation of the nature and impact of correlation in construction.

Pages: 58 to 63

Copyright: Copyright (c) IARIA, 2017

Publication date: June 25, 2017

Published in: conference

ISSN: 2308-3484

ISBN: 978-1-61208-567-8

Location: Venice, Italy

Dates: from June 25, 2017 to June 29, 2017