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Extending the Portfolio and Strategic Planning Horizon by Stochastic Forecasting of Unknown Future Projects

Authors:
Alireza Shojaei
Ian Flood

Keywords: Project Portfolio Management; Stochastic Forecasting; Time Series Modeling; Strategic Planning; Uncertainty

Abstract:
Providing a practical and comprehensive methodology to facilitate management and coordination of multiple projects in a company’s portfolio is a challenging task. Historically, the focus of research has been limited to the selection and prioritization of the set of known projects, current and near future. It is argued that existing portfolio planning models can be improved by adding a stochastic generator of project streams that extends the portfolio and strategic planning horizon to include future unknown projects. The study both identifies the historical factors in the market that are strong predictors of the profile of future project streams and evaluates alternative modeling approaches to the problem. The outputs from the generator are those parameters most critical to a company, namely the occurrence and letting date of a project, its expected duration, and its expected cost. A preliminary case study is presented developing, validating and testing the project stream generator for design-bid-build highway construction projects let by the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT).

Pages: 64 to 69

Copyright: Copyright (c) IARIA, 2017

Publication date: June 25, 2017

Published in: conference

ISSN: 2308-3484

ISBN: 978-1-61208-567-8

Location: Venice, Italy

Dates: from June 25, 2017 to June 29, 2017