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Authors:
Alireza Shojaei
Hashem Izadi Moud
Ian Flood
Keywords: Multivariate Regression; Elastic Net Rugularization; Strategic Planning; Project Portfolio Management, Forecasting.
Abstract:
Knowledge of the number of upcoming projects and their impact on the company plays a significant role in strategic planning for project-based companies. The current horizon of planning for companies working on public projects are the latest advertised projects for bidding, which in many cases is reported less than a year in advance. This provides a very short-term horizon for strategic project portfolio planning. In this research, a multivariate regression model with elastic net regularization, using economic indices and other environmental factors, is built for Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) projects to forecast the number of projects they will advertise in the future. The results show that, of the predictors considered, unemployment rate in the construction sector and the Brent oil price are the most significant variables in forecasting FDOT’s future project frequency.
Pages: 74 to 79
Copyright: Copyright (c) IARIA, 2018
Publication date: July 22, 2018
Published in: conference
ISSN: 2308-3484
ISBN: 978-1-61208-655-2
Location: Barcelona, Spain
Dates: from July 22, 2018 to July 26, 2018