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A Method for Evolutionary Decision Reconciliation, and Expert Theorems

Authors:
Vladislav Protasov
Zinaida Potapova
Eugene Melnikov

Keywords: - collective intelligence systems; Condorcet’s jury theorem; e-democracy; crowdsourcing; evolutionary decision reconciliation

Abstract:
The author believes that the lack of a theory behind collective intelligence systems and efficient information technologies is one of the reasons for slowing down the development of e-democracy processes. Existing government system, the democracy of the voting majority, is based on ideas that are more than 200 years old and on the well-known Condorcet’s jury theorem. One of this theorem’s corollaries is that a decision made by the majority vote of a group is worse than a decision made by a single member of the same group if the members of this group make incorrect decisions more often than they make correct decisions. This paper provides proof of two expert theorems proposed by the author. These theorems apply to groups of experts making joint decisions, and they propose that a group of experts involved in reconciliation increase the probability of correct decision if the experts have an opportunity to select and vote on the best third-party decisions. Conditions are provided under which the probability of correct decision by the group of experts approaches 1 as the number of the experts increases. These theorems indicate the direction for development of network programs helping groups of low-competence experts to overcome the Condorcet’s border.

Pages: 43 to 47

Copyright: Copyright (c) IARIA, 2014

Publication date: June 22, 2014

Published in: conference

ISSN: 2308-4065

ISBN: 978-1-61208-352-0

Location: Seville, Spain

Dates: from June 22, 2014 to June 26, 2014