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Expected Penetration Rate of 5G Mobile Users by 2020: A Case Study

Authors:
Andrey Krendzel
Philip Ginzboorg

Keywords: Penetration rate; 5G; 4G; Pareto distribution; Logistic function; Lorenz curve; Gini coefficient; GDP per capita.

Abstract:
The next 5th generation mobile network, or 5G key concepts, scenarios and requirements are actively debated in the research community. In this context, it is interesting to estimate a tentative 5G penetration rate, i.e., the mobile community of 5G users. In this paper, we focus on the initial 5G penetration, i.e., proportion of people who are willing to use the 5G networks, when the first 5G equipment is projected to be deployed, around the year 2020. The 5G penetration rate can be used as an input parameter for business viability, traffic estimation and network planning/dimensioning related to the 5G network infrastructure. The 5G penetration level will be country-specific; it may be different in different countries. We assume that the initial 5G penetration will depend on the penetration rate of the previous wave of the mobile wireless technology, which is called “fourth generation” (4G), or Long Term Evolution (LTE). Finland, currently, has the highest LTE penetration rate in Western Europe. As a case study, we estimate a number of potential users of the 5G network in Finland by 2020. In our approach we use relationships between mobile penetration rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, inequality of income distribution within population, and the Pareto law.

Pages: 78 to 81

Copyright: Copyright (c) IARIA, 2014

Publication date: July 20, 2014

Published in: conference

ISSN: 2308-3468

ISBN: 978-1-61208-366-7

Location: Paris, France

Dates: from July 20, 2014 to July 24, 2014