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Visual Risk Specification and Aggregation

Authors:
Jasmin Wachter
Thomas Grafenauer
Stefan Rass

Keywords: uncertainty representation; expert elicitation; risk assessment; opinion pooling

Abstract:
Quantitative risk assessments are commonly based on estimates of impacts and likelihoods regarding threats. Both quantities are usually uncertain, subjective and therefore difficult to estimate objectively and reliably. To ease the matter, assessments are often done in categorical terms, which avoids the issue of finding numeric figures where there is typically no accuracy, but at the same time makes an expression of uncertainty more difficult. If, for an impact or the likelihood, two categories apply (not necessarily to an equal extent) or neither of the offered options is a good match, how can an expert express this kind of uncertainty or fuzzyness? Moreover, how should we deal with multiple diverging opinions on the same risk? We propose a graphical approach to tackle both issues on a single ground, by casting a common visual risk representation form into a visual risk specification system. The proposed method aids the specification of risk parameters under uncertainty, as well as opinion pooling based on the so-obtained results.

Pages: 93 to 98

Copyright: Copyright (c) IARIA, 2017

Publication date: September 10, 2017

Published in: conference

ISSN: 2162-2116

ISBN: 978-1-61208-582-1

Location: Rome, Italy

Dates: from September 10, 2017 to September 14, 2017