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A Simulation-Based Innovation Forecasting Approach Combining the Bass Diffusion Model, the Discrete Choice Model and System Dynamics: An Application in the German Market for Electric Cars

Authors:
Luis Antonio Santa-Eulalia
Donald Neumann
Jörg Klasen

Keywords: Forecasting Innovation; System Dynamics; Bass Diffusion Model; Discrete Choice Model; Conjoint Analysis; Electric Vehicles (EV); German Electric Car Market.

Abstract:
This work presents a novel simulation-based forecasting approach combining concepts from the Bass Diffusion Model and the Discrete Choice Model from a System Dynamics perspective. The proposed approach allows for the forecasting of the adoption rate and its timing, by understanding the underlying preferences of individual customers and social forces influencing it. A real-scale preliminary application in the German market for electric cars, parameterized through a Conjoint Analysis, is provided. Simulation results indicate that battery charging technology and infrastructures are crucial for the success of electric cars in Germany.

Pages: 81 to 87

Copyright: Copyright (c) IARIA, 2011

Publication date: October 23, 2011

Published in: conference

ISSN: 2308-4537

ISBN: 978-1-61208-169-4

Location: Barcelona, Spain

Dates: from October 23, 2011 to October 29, 2011