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Simulating Counterinsurgency and Coalition Strategies

Authors:
David Arney
Kristin Arney

Keywords: counterinsurgency; force-on-force model; differential eqiation; network model

Abstract:
We model insurgency (IN) and counterinsurgency (COIN) operations with a large-scale system of differential equations that is connected to a coalition network model. Our simulations analyze components of leadership, promotion, recruitment, financial resources, operational techniques, network communications, coalition cooperation, logistics, security, intelligence, infrastructure development, humanitarian aid, and psychological warfare, with the goal of informing today’s decision makers of the options available in counterinsurgency tactics, operations, and strategy. In order to be more effective, the US military must improve its counterinsurgency capabilities and flexibility to match the adaptability of insurgent networks and terror cells. Our simulation model combines elements of traditional differential equation force-on-force modeling with modern social science modeling of networks, psyop, and coalition cooperation to inform the tactics and strategies of counterinsurgency decision makers. We calibrated our model with baseline data intended to keep the balanced strength equilibrium. We show the model development and results of a four-stage counter-insurgency scenario.

Pages: 142 to 147

Copyright: Copyright (c) The Government of United States, 2011. Used by permission to IARIA.

Publication date: October 23, 2011

Published in: conference

ISSN: 2308-4537

ISBN: 978-1-61208-169-4

Location: Barcelona, Spain

Dates: from October 23, 2011 to October 29, 2011