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Simulation-based Completeness Analysis and Adaption of Fault Trees

Authors:
Volker Gollücke
Jan Pinkowski
Christoph Läsche
Sebastian Gerwinn
Axel Hahn

Keywords: Simulation; Statistical Model Checking; Fault Trees; Risk Assessment; Offshore Operations; Observer.

Abstract:
Safety analysis is a common and important task for any operational planning of missions such as, in a maritime context, the construction and maintenance of offshore wind farms. Identifying potential risks that might occur during the planned operation or a sequence of operations is the main task of an associated hazard and risk analysis. This paper introduces an approach to automatically adapt fault trees based on a simulation of a model of the operation in question enhanced by a formal description of hazards. Formalizing the corresponding hazard specifications allows us to generate observers which in turn identify failures and hazards during a simulation of the system. Such detection of critical situation can interact with the simulation via a specialized controller application for the simulation thereby triggering the completion of an existing fault tree. As potentially stochastic models of the environment are considered as well, this simulation approach naturally provides guarantees of the result in terms of statistical confidence statements. The feasibility of this approach is exemplified on an offshore lifting operation.

Pages: 228 to 235

Copyright: Copyright (c) IARIA, 2014

Publication date: October 12, 2014

Published in: conference

ISSN: 2308-4537

ISBN: 978-1-61208-371-1

Location: Nice, France

Dates: from October 12, 2014 to October 16, 2014