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Can Simulation Prevent Companies from the Bullwhip Trap?

Authors:
Carlo Simon
Lara Zakfeld
Cecilie Elizabeth Jensen
Denis Klietsch
Mario Montag

Keywords: Logistics; Bullwhip effect; Modeling; Simulation; Excel; Petri nets; Savings

Abstract:
There exist many explications for phenomena in logistics – one of them is the so called bullwhip effect. It explains ups and downs in turnovers in a supply chain if demands and offers of the participants are not synchronized. While previous work on the simulation of the bullwhip effect was intended to explain it in general, surprisingly little research has been conducted with focus on how to make these simulations available for companies. In doing so, simulation based forecasts could reduce storage and production costs significantly, prevent companies from getting stuck in the bullwhip trap, and thus enable significant savings. This paper, in contrast, demonstrates how to develop models of the bullwhip effect for a given scenario with the aid of Excel and with a novel, freely accessible modeling and simulation environment for high-level Petri nets, and compares the findings. Companies can use both approaches and adapt them easily to their specific problem. Hence, this paper has two major outcomes: The models themselves but also an explanation on how to find such models.

Pages: 31 to 37

Copyright: Copyright (c) IARIA, 2021

Publication date: October 3, 2021

Published in: conference

ISSN: 2308-4537

ISBN: 978-1-61208-898-3

Location: Barcelona, Spain

Dates: from October 3, 2021 to October 7, 2021