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Airline Decision-Making in Sustainable Aviation Fuel Transition: A Hybrid Simulation Modeling Approach

Authors:
Mohd Shoaib
Fanny Camelia
Ramona Bernhardt
Ashraf Tantawy
Yaseen Zaidi
Ian Marr

Keywords: Air Transportation System; Hybrid Simulation; Sus- tainability; Agent-Based Modeling; System Dynamics

Abstract:
This study presents a hybrid simulation approach combining Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) and System Dynamics (SD) to capture the evolving system behavior through interacting stakeholders, including airlines, manufacturers, airports, and fuel suppliers, and to analyze how airlines adopt sustainable aviation fuels within the broader transition of the Air transportation System (ATS). Because the existing models often overlook the interplay between micro- and macro-level dynamics, this study addresses that limitation by integrating both agent-level behaviors and broader systemic trends, such as passenger demand, gross domestic product growth, and infrastructure constraints. SD captures the internal agent dynamics using stocks and flows, for example, passenger demand shaped by societal and economic trends. The ABM architecture represents each airline as an agent, modeled as a key decision-maker that monitors demand and capacity dynamics and makes strategic investment decisions in aircraft and fuel technologies. It is designed to represent how airlines implement and adjust their strategies in response to internal factors including various operational aspects and external factors including infrastructure support and sustainable fuel availability. Integrating ABM and SD enables concurrent simulation of agent-level behaviors and system-level feedback, providing a comprehensive view of the sociotechnical components in the ATS and their decision-making.

Pages: 34 to 39

Copyright: Copyright (c) IARIA, 2025

Publication date: September 28, 2025

Published in: conference

ISSN: 2308-4537

ISBN: 978-1-68558-300-2

Location: Lisbon, Portugal

Dates: from September 28, 2025 to October 2, 2025